A Conversation with Stephen Geldart
Top Sugar Market Analyst
Stephen’s been with Czarnikow (now CZ) since 2008, and he’s seen it evolve from an old-school sugar trading house to a more relaxed, relationship-focused supply chain partner. These days, CZ isn’t just about sugar—they’re helping out with a wide range of food, ingredients and packaging and prefer long-term relationships over taking big market bets.
Stephen’s job? He’s a bona fide sugar sleuth, puzzling over where all the sugar goes and why we can never really know exactly how much people actually eat. Turns out, even he can’t tell you how much sugar he ate yesterday, and he’s not alone! A lot of sugar gets lost in translation—literally—because it’s hiding in the foods no one thinks about and because people, well, aren’t always the best at tracking their snacks.
When it comes to sugar consumption, Stephen shares a little secret: most experts just assume sugar is “eaten” once it’s in the chocolate bar or ice cream, even though plenty of food gets tossed out. And, believe it or not, about a quarter of food is wasted before anyone ever eats it. So, those consumption numbers? They aren’t quite as rock-solid as they may seem.
Back in the day, the rule was that sugar demand would rise about two per cent each year, thanks to growing populations and rising incomes. But since 2014, things have calmed down. Sugar taxes, splashy news headlines, and product reformulations (hello, new and improved low-sugar sodas) mean people are eating about the same amount of sugar—sometimes even less.
In places like the UK, sugar intake has dropped from more than 50 kilos per person in the 1950s to just about 25 now. Meanwhile, developing countries are consuming more, so on average, it all kind of balances out. And in case anyone’s curious, the U.S. will get a tiny bump when Coke switches to cane sugar, but overall, sweetener demand is trickling down.
Like most analysts, Stephen is unsure about Brazil’s legendary sweet tooth—once topping 60 kilos per person, but now closer to 46. However, he’ll be the first to tell you: all these numbers hide big differences. For example, people with higher incomes and more free time often cook at home and manage their sugar consumption, while processed food fans might get more hidden sugars than they realise.
On the farming and production side, not much drama lately; global sugar production has floated between 160 and 190 million tonnes for years. Even with crazy swings in yield and policy nudges for ethanol in places like India, things are steady.
But watch this space—new appetite-suppressing meds, like those famous GLP-1 drugs, are starting to shift how people eat. Stephen notes that folks on those meds aren’t just dropping pounds—they’re choosing food with less sugar and more fibre. The impact is still a mystery, but CZ has started nudging its forecasts down just in case these drugs go big.
And here’s another fun tidbit: a small group of “superusers” eat most of the chocolate and ice cream, so if they jump on these drugs, it could shake up the market more than expected.
In short, Stephen’s story is part detective novel, part health trend watch, and part market adventure—a reminder that sugar’s journey from cane to cake (and sometimes bin) is anything but boring.
You can read the full interview on my website.
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